In a sweeping escalation, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan and significantly downgraded bilateral ties following a deadly militant attack in Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir.
The announcement marks a profound shift in regional relations and threatens the durability of one of the world’s most resilient transboundary water agreements. Speaking in New Delhi, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri declared, “The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect.”
India’s decision comes just one day after suspected militants killed 26 civilians and injured 17 others at a popular tourist destination in Anantnag district. Misri stated that evidence pointed to cross-border involvement, though India has not publicly released supporting documentation.
The attack occurred while U.S. Vice President JD Vance was visiting the Indian city of Jaipur on a sightseeing tour, just a day after meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi during his four-day visit to South Asia.
India downgrade ties: Visa restrictions, Border closure, Diplomatic recall
In addition to suspending the treaty, India announced a series of measures that effectively downgrade diplomatic and people-to-people engagement with Pakistan. These include:
- Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty: The six-decade-old water-sharing agreement will remain suspended until India deems Pakistan renounced alleged support for terrorism.
- Closure of Attari-Wagah Border Crossing: The only India-Pakistan border check post at Attari has been closed immediately. Those who have crossed over with valid endorsements have been asked to return through that route before May 1, 2025.
- Cancellation of SAARC Visa Exemptions: Pakistani nationals will no longer be permitted to travel to India under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SPES). All previously issued SPES visas to Pakistani nationals are revoked, and “any Pakistani national currently in India under a SPES visa has 48 hours to leave the country.”
- Expulsion of Pakistani Military Attachés: Defense, Military, Naval, and Air Advisors in the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi have been declared persona non grata and given one week to leave India.
- Withdrawal of Indian Military Attachés from Islamabad: India will withdraw its own Defense, Navy, and Air Advisors from its High Commission in Islamabad. These positions are officially annulled and will no longer be maintained.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs also confirmed that Pakistan’s senior-most diplomat in New Delhi has been summoned to receive formal notification of these decisions.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has convened an all-party meeting to brief opposition leaders on the government’s response and next steps.
Pakistan rejects allegations, convenes Security Council
In Islamabad, Pakistani officials quickly rejected India’s accusations and condemned the suspension of the treaty. Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar said, “India’s measures are inappropriate and lacking seriousness,” adding that New Delhi has provided no credible evidence linking Pakistan to the attack in Indian-occupied Kashmir.
Dar confirmed that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif would chair a meeting of the National Security Committee (NSC) to determine Pakistan’s official response. “The NSC will issue a comprehensive reply,” he said during a televised interview. The high-level meeting is expected to include Pakistan’s top civilian and military leadership.
Indus Water Treaty suspension shakes foundation of water cooperation
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank and signed in 1960, has long been hailed as a rare example of sustained cooperation between two nuclear-armed adversaries. It allocates control of the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan.
Despite multiple wars and diplomatic breakdowns, the treaty had remained intact—until now.
India’s move to suspend the agreement, although framed as temporary, raises serious legal and operational questions. Article XII of the treaty explicitly states that it cannot be altered or terminated unilaterally. Experts note that the treaty contains no provision for “suspension,” and any lasting deviation from its framework would require mutual consent.
Pakistan says treaty suspension is ‘violation of international law’
Pakistan’s Minister of Defense, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, asserted that India’s action violates international law. “India cannot take a unilateral decision regarding the Indus Water Treaty,” he said. “If Pakistan’s sovereignty is challenged, the country will respond with full force. Our armed forces are fully capable and prepared to respond to any aggression or misadventure.”
Asif also emphasized that while Pakistan condemns all forms of terrorism, India’s response was a disproportionate and politically motivated attempt to shift focus from domestic issues.
South Asia’s water politics and strategic risks
Experts say that even though India doesn’t currently have the ability to block large amounts of water from reaching Pakistan, its decision creates uncertainty. This unpredictability could affect Pakistan’s farming and energy systems, which rely on steady water flows.
India’s decision also carries diplomatic and strategic risks. As a downstream riparian on other transboundary rivers, particularly those originating in China, India has historically advocated for mutual respect of water-sharing agreements. By unilaterally suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), it may set a precedent that could later be used against its own interests.
Moreover, such actions risk damaging India’s international reputation as a responsible riparian—especially as it navigates complex water-sharing relationships with China over the Brahmaputra and other rivers.
Any future Indian infrastructure aimed at altering water flows could escalate tensions into open conflict. Pakistan has warned that such moves would be treated as acts of aggression. Additionally, holding back water during the dry season could exacerbate inter-provincial tensions within Pakistan.
The broader risk lies in precedent. Suspending a long-standing multilateral treaty—especially one mediated by the World Bank—could ripple through regional and global forums where India seeks greater strategic influence. For over six decades, the Indus Waters Treaty stood as a bulwark against the chaos of Indo-Pakistan relations, surviving conflict, distrust, and war. Its abrupt suspension marks an inflection point.
The coming days will test whether the region can still lean on diplomacy—or if water, the most essential resource, becomes another theater for geopolitical confrontation.