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Thursday, May 15, 2025

Pakistan warns India Indus Waters Treaty suspension will be ‘Act of War’; Trade halted, Diplomats expelled, Airspace closed

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In a sweeping response to India’s unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan has enacted a series of retaliatory measures, escalating tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors to their highest level in recent years.

The decisions, announced following an emergency meeting of Pakistan’s National Security Committee (NSC), chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, include the suspension of all bilateral agreements with India, the closure of the Wagah border, the expulsion of Indian military attaches, and a complete shutdown of airspace to Indian carriers.

These developments come in the wake of a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed at least 26 civilians. India responded by suspending the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, a critical water-sharing agreement brokered by the World Bank, accusing Pakistan of complicity. Pakistan has vehemently rejected the allegations and termed India’s actions as “reckless” and in violation of international norms.

For Pakistan, the Indus River is not merely a resource — it is a lifeline for 240 million people, and any attempt to disrupt its flow is a direct threat to national survival

Islamabad declares India’s move a potential “Act of War”

The NSC’s statement declared that the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty “will be regarded as an act of war” and emphasized that any attempt to block or divert Pakistan’s water share would be met with “the full spectrum of national power.”

“Pakistan categorically rejects India’s statement regarding the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said. The treaty, which has survived multiple wars and decades of animosity, is now in jeopardy for the first time since its signing in 1960.

Pakistan has also suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement and closed its airspace to all Indian-owned or operated aircraft. Trade relations—including those via third countries—are halted, and all visas issued under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme to Indian nationals have been revoked.

Two great rivers merging at Nimmu in Ladakh
Two great rivers merging at Nimmu in Ladakh. (Image Credit: Wikimedia)

Diplomatic and Military personnel expelled

In a rare diplomatic escalation, Pakistan has declared Indian Defence, Naval, and Air Advisors posted in Islamabad as persona non grata, ordering their expulsion by April 30. Their support staff are also required to leave.

Moreover, the number of Indian High Commission personnel in Pakistan will be reduced to 30, significantly downsizing diplomatic engagement. “All Indian nationals currently in Pakistan, excluding Sikh religious pilgrims, are instructed to depart the country within 48 hours,” the government stated.

Full list of actions taken by Pakistan as of April 24, 2025

Here is a comprehensive list of all actions taken by Pakistan in response to India’s measures after the Pahalgam attack. These decisions are based on the full Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) statement following the National Security Committee (NSC) meeting in Islamabad.

Diplomatic Measures

Suspension of Bilateral Agreements: Pakistan has placed all bilateral agreements with India, including the 1972 Simla Agreement, in abeyance. This measure will remain in force until India ceases what Pakistan describes as its policy of fomenting terrorism, engaging in transnational killings, and violating international law and UN resolutions concerning Kashmir.

Reduction of Indian Diplomatic Presence: The Government of Pakistan will reduce the size of the Indian High Commission in Islamabad. Effective April 30, 2025, the number of Indian diplomats and staff permitted in Islamabad will be limited to 30.

Expulsion of Military Advisors: Indian Defense, Naval, and Air Advisors stationed at the Indian High Commission in Islamabad have been declared persona non grata. They, along with their respective support staff, are required to leave Pakistan no later than April 30, 2025. Their official positions are now formally annulled.

Revocation of SAARC Visa Exemptions: Pakistan has cancelled all visas issued to Indian nationals under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES), with immediate effect. The only exemption applies to Sikh religious pilgrims. All Indian nationals currently in Pakistan under this scheme are instructed to exit the country within 48 hours.

Trade & Economic Measures

Complete Suspension of Trade with India: All trade between Pakistan and India is suspended with immediate effect. This includes not only direct bilateral trade but also transit trade through Pakistan involving third countries.

Border Control & Airspace Restrictions

Closure of Wagah Border Crossing: The Wagah border post is closed with immediate effect. All cross-border transit from India via this route has been suspended without exception. Individuals who have entered Pakistan via Wagah with valid documentation must exit by April 30, 2025.

Closure of Airspace to Indian Aircraft: Pakistan’s airspace is now closed to all aircraft owned or operated by Indian carriers. This ban is effective immediately and applies to both commercial and non-commercial flights.

Strategic Positioning & Security Posturing

Rejection of Indus Waters Treaty Suspension: Pakistan has firmly rejected India’s unilateral move to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty. Declaring the treaty a vital national interest and a binding international agreement, Pakistan emphasized that any attempt to stop or divert its rightful share of water would be considered an act of war and would be met with a full-spectrum response by the state.

Affirmation of Military Readiness: The NSC underscored the full readiness of Pakistan’s Armed Forces to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Citing its measured but firm response to India’s 2019 aerial incursion, Pakistan reaffirmed its capacity to respond decisively to any form of aggression.

Context: Pakistan retaliates as India suspends Indus Waters Treaty

The moves by Pakistan follow a series of retaliatory actions taken by India in response to a deadly attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir on Tuesday, which left at least 26 people dead. In the aftermath, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, where the government announced a sweeping set of measures, most notably the unilateral suspension of the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty—a critical water-sharing pact that enables both nations to irrigate vast stretches of agricultural land.

Indian security personnel patrol a street the morning after militants opened fire on tourists near Pahalgam
Indian security personnel patrol a street the morning after militants opened fire on tourists near Pahalgam in Indian-occupied Kashmir, on April 23, 2025. (Image Credit: AP)

Additionally, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced the immediate closure of the border with Pakistan, a sharp reduction in the number of Indian diplomatic personnel in Islamabad, the expulsion of Pakistani military attaches from India, and a directive ordering all Pakistani nationals under the SAARC visa exemption scheme to leave India within 48 hours. These steps have widely been interpreted as India holding Pakistan responsible for the Kashmir attack, despite the absence of any credible, verifiable evidence linking Islamabad to the incident.

However, Pakistan has dismissed Indian accusations linking the attack to Islamabad, branding them as “false flag operations” aimed at deflecting attention from India’s domestic failings and human rights abuses in Kashmir.

A little-known group, identified in Indian media as “The Resistance Front,” claimed responsibility, asserting that the victims were affiliated with Indian security agencies and represented efforts to change Kashmir’s demographics. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to “pursue the attackers to the ends of the Earth.”

Regional and International Implications

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar underscored that the country had “already lost three rivers” under the treaty and warned that any further disruption would constitute an “act of aggression.”

“India’s worn-out narrative of victimhood cannot obfuscate its own culpability in fomenting terrorism on Pakistan’s soil,” read a statement from the Prime Minister’s Office, citing the case of Commander Kulbhushan Jadhav as evidence of Indian-sponsored terrorism.

Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif went further, labeling Indian Prime Minister Modi as “the biggest terrorist,” and declaring Pakistan was prepared to respond to any form of aggression. “Our forces are ready, our people are ready,” he said.

The NSC also criticized India’s treatment of minorities, its revocation of Kashmir’s autonomy, and what it called the “politically motivated” passage of laws to marginalize Muslims across India

The standoff threatens to destabilize South Asia further and potentially drag in international actors concerned about nuclear escalation, human rights, and water security in the region.

While the international community has yet to issue a unified response, Pakistan’s declarations signal a hardened stance and an unwillingness to tolerate what it sees as provocations by New Delhi. “Any threat to Pakistan’s sovereignty and the security of its people will be met with firm reciprocal measures in all domains,” Islamabad concluded.

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