A recent report from the American Cancer Society (ACS) has projected cancer cases to increase by 77% over the next 25 years, rising to 35 million worldwide by 2050.
In 2022, the most recent year for which data is available, the world witnessed approximately 20 million new cancer diagnoses, leading to 9.7 million deaths.
This means that roughly 1 in 5 individuals currently alive will likely face a cancer diagnosis in their lifetime. Additionally, the statistics revealed that 1 in 9 men and 1 in 12 women will succumb to the disease.
The report, authored by ACS researchers and the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), was published in CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians, along with a consumer-friendly companion publication, Global Cancer Facts & Figures 5th Edition. The studies rely on the worldwide estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the IARC, the cancer agency of the World Health Organization (WHO).
Primary contributors
The report highlighted that population growth and the increasing aging demographic are the primary contributors to the escalating cancer burden.
“We think that number will go up to 35 million by 2050, largely due to an increasing population in the aging population ” Dr. William Dahut, Chief Scientific Officer for the American Cancer Society stated.
The global population, which stood at approximately 8 billion in 2022, is expected to swell to 9.7 billion by 2050, intensifying the challenges posed by cancer, the report said.
“This rise in projected cancer cases by 2050 is solely due to the aging and growth of the population, assuming current incidence rates remain unchanged,” said Dr. Hyuna Sung, senior principal scientist, cancer surveillance at the American Cancer Society and co-author of the report.
“Notably, the prevalence of major risk factors such as consumption of unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, heavy alcohol consumption, and cigarette smoking are increasing in many parts of the world and will likely exacerbate the future burden of cancer barring any large scale interventions.”
However, the situation could worsen if risk factors such as tobacco use and obesity become more prevalent. Dr. Dahut cautioned that these risk factors are increasingly affecting low-income countries.
“A lot of the drivers for cancer that we’ve traditionally seen in high-income countries, such as tobacco and obesity, these same cancer drivers are now moving into the low-income countries,” he remarked.
He further expressed concern over the readiness of these countries to tackle the growing cancer burden. “These are countries that do not have the tools to find cancer early, treat cancer appropriately and prevent it in ways that are often being done in other countries,” he said.
“We’re worried that we’re going to see increased incidence rates, increased mortality rates, particularly in low-income countries, where the cancers are now being driven not only by traditional cancer drivers but also by external things such as tobacco and obesity.”
Prevention offers the most cost-effective cancer control strategy
“With more than half of cancer deaths worldwide being potentially preventable, prevention offers the most cost-effective and sustainable strategy for cancer control,” said Dr. Ahmedin Jemal, senior vice president of surveillance & health equity science at the American Cancer Society and senior author of the study. “Elimination of tobacco use alone could prevent 1 in 4 cancer deaths or approximately 2.6 million cancer deaths annually.”
Key findings
- In 2022, an alarming average of 1,800 women were diagnosed with cervical cancer daily, leading to nearly 1,000 deaths worldwide.
- Lung cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer mortality, accounting for nearly 2.5 million cases (1 in 8 cancers) and 1.8 million deaths (1 in 5 deaths).
- In men, lung cancer is succeeded by prostate and colorectal cancers in terms of incidence and by liver and colorectal cancers in mortality.
- Conversely, breast cancer is the most prevalent cancer among women and the primary cause of cancer death, followed by lung, colorectal, and cervical cancers.
- Cervical cancer remains the primary cause of cancer-related deaths among women in 37 countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.
- The incidence rates are particularly pronounced in Eswatini, Zambia, Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Tanzania, ranging from 65 to 96 cases per 100,000 population. This is significantly higher, by 10 to 16 times, than the incidence rate in the United States, which stands at 6 per 100,000.
- Despite the availability of a vaccine against the human papillomavirus (HPV), only 15% of eligible girls globally have received it.
- Vaccination coverage is starkly inconsistent, with rates as low as 1% in Central and Southern Asia and as high as 86% in Australia and New Zealand.
- Furthermore, cervical cancer screening rates are worryingly low worldwide, with only 36% of women having undergone screening.
- Disparities are evident, with merely 4% of eligible women in Ethiopia having been screened, compared to nearly 100% in Sweden and The Netherlands.
- Many low-income countries grapple with high cancer mortality rates, despite a lower incidence of cancer, primarily due to inadequate early detection and treatment services.
- Breast cancer mortality rate is double in Ethiopia compared to the United States (24 versus 12 per 100,000), even though Ethiopia has a 60% lower incidence rate (40 versus 100 per 100,000).