China’s annual population fell for the first time in more than 60 years, a historic turn seen as the beginning of a long period of population decline for the world’s most populous country.
The official data issued by the country’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed China’s population declined by about 850,000 people last year, to the end of 2022 with a population of 1.4118 billion, compared with a population of 1.4126 billion in 2021.
This was the first time the country saw a drop in population since 1961, the last year of China’s Great Famine.
In the long term, United Nations experts are projecting China’s population to shrink by 109 million by 2050, more than triple the decline of their previous forecast in 2019.
China followed a result of the strict one-child policy that only officially ended in 2016.
In China, men continue to outnumber women in China by 722.06 million to 689.69 million, partly due to a traditional preference for male offspring to carry on the family name.
Death rate outnumbers birth rates
The country has seen birth rates drop to record lows at 9.56 million, according to the NBS, while the number of deaths stood at 10.41 million.
The analysts have warned that the drop in birth rates could baffle economic growth and put pressure on the country’s already under-pressure public finances.
Demographic crisis
Chinese demographers fear if the population kept shrinking, China could get old before it gets rich, as they see the Chinese economy slowing down due to a decline in government revenues and an increase in government debt amid soaring health and welfare costs.
“China’s demographic and economic outlook is much bleaker than expected. China will have to adjust its social, economic, defense and foreign policies,” said a domestic demographer Yi Fuxian.
India could be most populous nation
With the drop in China’s population, India could be the world’s most populous nation, based on the U.N. experts’ estimates last year, which projected the Indian population to reach 1.412 billion in 2022, though they did not expect the South Asian nation to overtake China at that time. There is no local data available on India’s population as the country only collects population figures every 10 years and its latest census, originally scheduled for 2021, has been delayed due to the pandemic.