Young Thai voters hope to drive out pro-military party in general elections 2023

Millions of Thai citizens cast their votes on Sunday in the general election, with opposition parties capitalizing on widespread frustration over the military’s grip on power and its handling of the economy.

This marks the first election since the 2020 pro-democracy protests led by young people and the second since the 2014 military coup that overthrew an elected government and reinstated a conservative group that has long controlled Thailand’s turbulent politics.

With 52 million eligible voters, including 3.3 million first-time voters aged 18 to 22, the pro-military, royalists, and populist opposition are competing for their support. The outcome of the election could put an end to nearly a decade of military and conservative-led governments, according to recent polls.

Opposition parties take lead

The country’s two largest opposition parties were on course to win a combined majority in the 500-seat lower house of parliament, according to preliminary results from election authorities.

With 97% of polling stations counted, the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP) had 13.5 million ballots in the popular vote, ahead of rival opposition outfit Pheu Thai on 10.3 million, with the United Thai Nation party of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha on 4.5 million.

Thailand's Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha and two of his rival candidates, Pita Limjaroenrat and Paetongtarn Shinawatra, cast their votes in Bangkok. Read more: https://t.co/PuxKH4vqi1 pic.twitter.com/sKqcYG0w2n

— Reuters (@Reuters) May 14, 2023

Who are the key players?

The influential voter base of Thailand’s powerful conservative establishment is largely composed of individuals who support political parties linked to the military, monarchy, and ruling elites, particularly those based in Bangkok.

On the opposing side are progressive and populist opposition parties.

Pheu Thai party – The opposition party Pheu Thai party, which is currently leading in opinion polls, has put forward two prime ministerial candidates and is campaigning on a platform that includes raising the minimum wage, providing welfare cash handouts, and removing the military from politics.

The party is associated with the Shinawatra family, a controversial political dynasty headed by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a former policeman turned billionaire telecoms tycoon. Thaksin and his sister Yingluck were both ousted in military coups and currently live in exile, having been sentenced to prison on corruption charges in their absence by Thai courts.

'แพทองธาร' พร้อมครอบครัวเดินทางเข้าพรรค ลุ้นผล #เลือกตั้ง66 pic.twitter.com/qGzdpOePxH

— พรรคเพื่อไทย Pheu Thai Party (@PheuThaiParty) May 14, 2023

One of Thaksin’s daughters, 36-year-old Paetongtarn, is running as a prime ministerial candidate, despite having only entered politics three years ago. She presents herself as belonging to a new generation, aiming to connect with young Thai voters.

Move Forward Party – With an agenda of challenging the army’s grip on power, Thailand’s progressive Move Forward Party is gaining the support of the country’s young voters. The party hopes to secure a place in a coalition government with the help of the youth vote.

Analysts have deemed it a “game changer,” as its candidates are pushing for fundamental structural changes to Thailand’s governance, including military reform and revisions to the country’s strict lese majeste law, which prohibits any criticism of the royal family and makes any open discussion about its role a risky proposition.

Leading the charge is Pita Limcharoenrat, Move Forward’s charismatic leader, who has emerged as the top choice for prime minister, according to recent polls.

The 42-year-old Harvard alumnus with a business background has garnered him a massive following, making him one of the top prime ministerial picks in opinion polls.

United Thai Nation – The incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who orchestrated the 2014 coup, is vying for re-election with a new party, the United Thai Nation.

Despite losing to Pheu Thai in the 2019 election, he secured enough support from coalition parties to become prime minister. Though his approval ratings are low, analysts have warned against underestimating him due to his connections with Thailand’s elites. His tenure has been marked by controversy, increasing authoritarianism, and worsening inequality.

Throughout Thailand’s tumultuous history, elected governments have struggled to survive under military influence. Since 1932, the country has experienced an average of one coup every seven years, with the most recent one occurring in 2014 when Prayut Chan-ocha, the former army chief, seized power. Presenting himself as a civilian premier, Prayuth has remained in office ever since and is now seeking to return to power in the upcoming election.

However, Prayuth’s prolonged tenure has led to a significant loss of support among younger voters. Around 40% of eligible voters were born in the early 1980s or later, with around 4 million of them casting their votes for the first time on Sunday.

Youth Party vows to move Thailand forward from army control

Experts predict that a substantial portion of these votes will go to the Move Forward Party. “Move Forward is the only party that talks about structural change,” said Sayo, a 24-year-old who sells Move Forward Party T-shirts.

Pita has vowed to send military generals back to their barracks, a promise that deeply resonates with young voters who have experienced two military coups in 2006 and 2014. The party’s goal, as articulated by supporters like Jammy, a 34-year-old human rights lawyer, is clear: they want the military to relinquish control.

“Our time has come,” he told crowds of mostly young supporters in a packed stadium in Bangkok his final big campaign event before Thailand’s elections. Pita’s Move Forward party has built a large and loyal support base among young Thais who are fed up with the political status quo.

แตกยับขนาดนี้ ขอเปลี่ยนจาก #สงขลา เป็น #ส้มขลา 1 คืนครับ

จำพลังคืนนี้ไว้แล้ว กา ก้าวไกล 2 ใบ สงขลา หาดใหญ่ ไม่เหมือนเดิม

พวกคุณสุดยอดมากครับ และนี่คือ “คำสัญญาที่หาดใหญ่” จากพรรคก้าวไกล ว่าเราจะมาสร้างอนาคตใหม่ให้พี่น้องชาวใต้ทุกคน

สถานีต่อไป #พัทลุง#ก้าวไกล #พรรคก้าวไกล31 pic.twitter.com/9xx9iYJDBS

— Pita Limjaroenrat (@Pita_MFP) May 7, 2023

In the final week of campaigning, Move Forward deployed its prominent speakers to tour the country in four buses, attracting large crowds. The campaign has been dubbed “all roads lead to Government House” as the party aims to rally support and gather momentum for their cause.

According to the data shared from a recent poll conducted by The Nation Media Group:

• Move Forward is projected to secure nearly 80 constituency seats and 30 party-list seats based on a recent poll by The Nation Media Group.
• Analysts express caution about the party’s ability to reach the target of 100 seats.
• Move Forward is expected to diminish the support for Pheu Thai, the party associated with the political dynasty of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
• Pheu Thai is predicted to secure the majority of seats in the fully elected House of Representatives.
• Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is among the candidates competing for the prime minister position.
• If Move Forward and Pheu Thai’s combined seats approach a majority in the 700-member parliament, they could potentially form a coalition due to their shared goal of reducing the military’s influence in politics.