Global Warming Predicted to Lead to Record-High Temperatures by 2028, Crossing 1.5°C Threshold
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in its latest report, issued a concerning climate warning, stating there is a two-in-three chance that the world will surpass the critical 1.5°C global warming threshold for at least one of the next five years.
WMO made alarming predictions in its Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update released Wednesday, May 18. According to the WMO update, there is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years will break previous temperature records and a 66% chance of surpassing the 1.5°C threshold. Furthermore, there is a 32% probability that the average temperature over the next five years will exceed 1.5°C. This likelihood has been steadily increasing since 2015 when it was close to zero, and between 2017 and 2021, the chance was 10%.
While the possibility of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold in one of the next five years raised concerns about the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement, it does not imply its failure, the report maintained.
Previously, nearly all nations had committed to the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to below 2°C, with a preference for staying below 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, the forecasted likelihood of a year exceeding 1.5°C does not signify failure. However, it serves as a critical warning that urgent action is required to prevent irreversible climate impacts and ecosystem loss.
Human Influence
The influence of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions has already raised global average temperatures by over 1°C since the late 19th century. Despite the cooling effect of La Niña conditions, the average global temperature in 2022 was approximately 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average. Currently, temperatures are rising by about 0.2°C per decade.
Moreover, the potential occurrence of a significant El Niño event in 2024, the first since 2016, would further elevate the chances of breaking the existing global temperature record.
Surprisingly, the frequency of heat records is increasing globally and locally, despite the expectation that it should become more challenging to achieve new records as data collection improves. This trend is a clear indication of the human impact on climate, pushing temperatures to unprecedented and alarming levels.
The report emphasized that unless humanity takes immediate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero, the world can expect even more extreme heat records beyond the next decade.