Indonesia remains on high alert for wildfires despite a decline in detected hotspots and estimated fire-related carbon emissions, as insufficient rainfall, prolonged drought and smoldering peatlands continue to fuel a major environmental and public-health crisis across Southeast Asia.
The number of high-confidence fire hotspots fell to 565 on October 22, down from more than 1,200 on October 14, according to Indonesia’s forest ministry monitoring platform, Sipongi. Fire-related carbon dioxide emissions also declined, with the EU’s Copernicus climate monitoring service estimating emissions of 14.44 million metric tons between October 15 and October 21, compared with 22.22 million metric tons during the preceding seven-day period.
However, officials have warned that the improvement remains fragile. Sporadic rainfall has not been sufficient to extinguish persistent fires, while Indonesia’s rainy season is expected to arrive later than usual. The fires have generated extensive haze, disrupted aviation and contributed to hundreds of thousands of reported respiratory illnesses, with smoke affecting neighboring Singapore and Malaysia.
“Based on the latest developments, the number of hotspots has shown a decline; however, the trend remains volatile and is not yet uniform across all regions,” Berton Panjaitan, a spokesperson for Indonesia’s disaster mitigation agency, told Reuters.
Nearly 1.92 million Hectares Affected by Fires
The decline in active hotspots comes after months of intense burning across Indonesia. Satellite analysis by Nusantara Atlas, an open-access monitoring platform, estimated that fires affected approximately 1.92 million hectares of land between January and the end of September 2026.
The area affected increased from 895,650 hectares at the end of August to approximately 1.92 million hectares by the end of September, according to figures reported by Reuters on October 20. The estimate exceeded the 1.39 million hectares recorded by the same point in 2019, a year when Indonesia ultimately experienced extensive wildfires.
Nusantara Atlas said its January-to-September estimate was 38% higher than the corresponding period in 2019. It cautioned, however, that the figures represent land affected by fire rather than an equivalent area of vegetation completely destroyed. Some vegetation may survive or recover, while smoke and cloud cover can delay satellite detection.
The fires have affected multiple types of landscapes, including swamp vegetation, agricultural land, grasslands and forests. Nusantara Atlas estimated that approximately 35% of the mapped burned area involved swamp vegetation, while agricultural land and savanna and grassland each accounted for around 20%. Natural forest represented approximately 4.5% of the mapped total.
The geographical distribution also highlights risks to sensitive ecosystems. The monitoring group identified burning within the forest interior of Gunung Palung National Park in West Kalimantan, an area where forest fires are considered unusual under natural conditions. It also highlighted areas of concern in Ketapang and Kayong Utara in West Kalimantan, Ogan Komering Ilir in South Sumatra, and parts of Central Kalimantan.
El Niño and Delayed Rainfall Complicate Firefighting
Indonesia’s prolonged dry season has intensified the threat. Strong El Niño conditions have contributed to elevated temperatures and reduced rainfall, leaving forests and peatlands more vulnerable to ignition and making existing fires harder to extinguish.
The country’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) said on October 2 that most of Indonesia was expected to enter the 2026–2027 rainy season in November or December, with the onset forecast to be later than normal across much of the country. The agency also projected that El Niño conditions could persist into early 2027.
That outlook leaves firefighters facing a potentially prolonged operation. Peatland fires can continue smoldering below the surface even after visible flames have been suppressed. Extinguishing them requires large volumes of water to reach deeper layers of combustible material, and fires can reignite when dry conditions persist.
“The potential for new hotspots to emerge persists, especially if rainfall remains uneven and the sources of the fires have not been fully addressed,” Panjaitan said.
More Than 69,000 Personnel Deployed
Indonesia has expanded its response, deploying more than 69,000 firefighting personnel, compared with approximately 44,000 in mid-September, alongside around 50 aircraft for water-bombing and weather-modification operations, Reuters reported on October 22.
Authorities have also been testing additional methods, including specialized chemicals and dry ice as part of efforts to encourage cloud formation before cloud seeding. The operations are intended to generate rainfall in fire-affected areas, although the effectiveness of these interventions depends on atmospheric conditions and the availability of suitable clouds.
A government report published on October 12 identified six priority provinces for peatland fire management: Central Kalimantan, South Sumatra, South Kalimantan, Jambi, West Kalimantan and Riau. The National Disaster Mitigation Agency reported that ground teams were tackling fires across 639.23 hectares in those priority areas at the time, with the largest affected area in Central Kalimantan.
The government has also acknowledged operational constraints. The October 12 report said water-bombing helicopters in Central Kalimantan had been unable to operate because of adverse weather and poor visibility, underscoring the difficulties of relying on aerial operations in smoke-affected areas.
Indonesia’s firefighting strategy combines ground operations, aerial water-bombing, patrols and weather modification. Officials say efforts will continue even as they await more sustained rainfall.
“The goal is to prevent new fires and ensure that fires that have been extinguished do not reignite,” Panjaitan said.
Public Health and Regional Haze Under Pressure
The environmental crisis has extended well beyond burned land. Smoke from forest and peatland fires has degraded air quality across Indonesia and drifted into neighboring countries, including Singapore and Malaysia. The haze contains fine particles and other pollutants that can penetrate deep into the respiratory system, aggravating existing conditions and increasing health risks during prolonged exposure.
Indonesian authorities have reported hundreds of thousands of respiratory illness cases during the fire crisis. Children, older adults and pregnant women are among the groups particularly vulnerable to the effects of prolonged exposure to polluted air.
The impact is especially acute in communities across Kalimantan, where residents have faced persistent smoke while trying to maintain work, schooling and daily activities. Public-health advice to remain indoors can be difficult to follow for people who must earn a living outdoors or travel to obtain food and other necessities.
The haze has also disrupted transport. According to figures cited by Reuters on October 20, Indonesia’s civil aviation authority recorded 2,604 domestic flights affected by fires since August 11, with more than 1,400 canceled or postponed. Smoke reduced visibility and disrupted landings, takeoffs and ground operations.
The effects across borders have renewed criticism of Indonesia’s handling of the fires, which have become a recurring regional problem during severe dry seasons. The current crisis has also raised concerns about the ability of emergency operations to keep pace with fires spreading across extensive and difficult-to-access terrain.
Student Protests Demand Stronger Action
Public frustration has grown as the fires and haze persist. At least 100 university students staged a protest in Banjarmasin, the capital of South Kalimantan, demanding more concrete action from authorities. Students in Pontianak in West Kalimantan and Samarinda in East Kalimantan also held demonstrations on October 21, according to local media cited by Reuters.
The demonstrations reflect growing pressure on local and national authorities to deliver more effective fire suppression and address the conditions that allow fires to recur.
Indonesia has increased personnel deployments and expanded aerial operations, but the scale of the affected area, the persistence of underground peat fires and the delay in seasonal rainfall remain major obstacles.
Declining Hotspots Do Not Yet Signal an End
The latest reductions in hotspots and estimated emissions offer some indication that fire activity may be easing in parts of Indonesia. They do not, however, establish that the wider crisis is under control. Hotspot counts measure active fire detections at a given time, while burned-area estimates reflect the cumulative land affected over a longer period. The two indicators therefore measure different aspects of the fire season.
Nusantara Atlas has also cautioned that smoke and cloud cover can obscure satellite observations, meaning some burned areas may be identified only later. Its current estimates may be revised as further imagery becomes available.
For now, Indonesia’s response remains dependent on sustained firefighting, continued monitoring and the arrival of more widespread rainfall. Authorities have pledged to maintain patrols and operations to prevent fresh outbreaks and stop suppressed fires from reigniting.
With the rainy season expected to arrive later than normal in many parts of the country, the decline in detected hotspots provides only limited relief. The immediate challenge is to contain the remaining fires before further dry conditions allow them to spread and prolong the health, environmental and economic costs across Southeast Asia.