Global nuclear power capacity could more than triple by 2060 under an ambitious growth scenario, with small modular reactors (SMRs) accounting for a growing share of new capacity, as countries respond to rising electricity demand and heightened energy security concerns, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The IAEA’s 2026 edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2060 projects global nuclear electrical generating capacity could reach 1,284 gigawatts electric (GW(e)) by 2060 in its high case, compared with 377.1 GW(e) at the end of 2025.
Under the low case, global nuclear capacity would reach 696 GW(e) by 2060, nearly double the 2025 level.
The 2026 edition is the first IAEA assessment to extend its nuclear power projections to 2060. Previous editions projected nuclear capacity through 2050. The agency has raised its nuclear capacity projection for the sixth consecutive year.
The IAEA stresses that its low and high cases are not intended to be predictions. They represent a plausible range of nuclear capacity development based on assumptions about market conditions, technology, policy, financing, reactor retirements and new construction.
High Case Sees 1,284 GW(e) by 2060
The IAEA’s high case projects nuclear capacity rising to 692 GW(e) by 2040, 1,045 GW(e) by 2050 and 1,284 GW(e) by 2060. The 2050 figure is higher than the 992 GW(e) projection published in the previous edition.
Under the low case, nuclear capacity is projected to reach 641 GW(e) by 2050 and 696 GW(e) by 2060.
The high case would require approximately 1,017 GW(e) of new nuclear capacity to be added by 2060. About 128 GW(e) of existing nuclear capacity is projected to retire during the period, leaving a net capacity addition of roughly 890 GW(e).
The low case assumes approximately 521 GW(e) of new capacity and 220 GW(e) of retirements, producing a net addition of about 301 GW(e).
IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said: “The IAEA projections show the increasing role of nuclear power in meeting the world’s growing electricity needs. To realize this potential, investment in new nuclear capacity and reactor lifetime extensions will be essential,” said Director General Grossi.
The agency’s high case assumes stronger national commitments to nuclear power, including policies related to energy security and climate change mitigation. It remains, according to the IAEA, plausible and technically feasible, although the agency notes that capacity could exceed the high-case projection.
SMRs Could Supply Hundreds of Gigawatts
SMRs feature prominently in the revised outlook.
The IAEA defines SMRs as reactors with an electrical capacity of up to 300 MWe. In the high case, SMRs account for 28% of the 1,017 GW(e) of new nuclear capacity projected to be added by 2060. In the low case, SMRs account for 23% of the 521 GW(e) of new capacity.
The high-case share equates to approximately 285 GW(e) of SMR capacity when calculated from the IAEA’s 28% figure. This is a derived calculation rather than an IAEA projection of reactor numbers. If individual SMRs averaged 300 MWe, that capacity would correspond to roughly 950 reactors. At an average of 250 MWe, it would correspond to about 1,140 reactors.
Those reactor counts are derived calculations based on assumed average unit sizes, not a specific IAEA projection for the number of SMRs that will be built.
Under the low case, the 23% share of new capacity corresponds to approximately 120 GW(e). That would equate to about 400 reactors at an average capacity of 300 MWe, or about 480 reactors at 250 MWe. These reactor counts are derived from the projected capacity and assumed unit sizes.
The increase in the projected role of SMRs is substantial compared with the previous edition. In the 2025 assessment, SMRs represented 24% of new capacity in the high case but only 5% in the low case.
Regional Differences in SMR Deployment
The IAEA expects SMRs to play a particularly large role in several regions.
In Northern America, SMRs are projected to represent about 60% of new nuclear capacity in both the low and high cases.
The projected share is about 40% in both cases in Latin America and the Caribbean and South-Eastern Asia.
The IAEA also projects SMRs to account for about 40% of new capacity in Africa under the low case and around 30% under the high case. In Western Asia, the share is approximately 25% in both cases.
In Southern Asia, SMRs account for 1% of new capacity in the low case and 5% in the high case. The share is around 10% in Central and Eastern Asia in both cases.
In Northern, Western and Southern Europe, the projected SMR share ranges from about 10% in the low case to 15% in the high case, while Eastern Europe’s share ranges from about 5% to 15%.
The IAEA projects that all new nuclear capacity in Oceania in its high case would consist of SMRs.
Central and Eastern Asia Leads Nuclear Expansion
Central and Eastern Asia is projected to account for the largest increase in nuclear capacity.
The region’s capacity could rise from 113.8 GW(e) in 2025 to 407 GW(e) by 2060 under the high case. Its nuclear electricity production could increase from 708.8 terawatt-hours in 2025 to approximately 3,355 TWh by 2060.
Northern America is also projected to experience substantial growth, with nuclear capacity reaching 342 GW(e) by 2060 in the high case, compared with 109.7 GW(e) in 2025.
Southern Asia could reach 124 GW(e), while Africa could increase from 1.9 GW(e) to 42 GW(e) under the high case.
Aging Reactor Fleet Raises Retirement Pressure
The expansion will have to occur alongside the retirement of an aging global reactor fleet.
The IAEA says two out of every three nuclear power reactors have been in operation for 30 years or more, while 46% have been operating for 40 years or more.
Looking at capacity rather than reactor numbers, 67% of global nuclear capacity has been in operation for at least 30 years, and 46% for at least 40 years.
Under the high case, about 128 GW(e) of capacity is projected to retire by 2060. The low case assumes approximately 220 GW(e) of retirements.
The IAEA said that “a lifetime extension for an existing reactor, if it is viable, is one of the most cost-effective baseload low emission electricity sources and is of particular importance for regions with ageing nuclear fleets.”
Lifetime-extension initiatives and aging-management programs are underway in several countries with large nuclear fleets. The agency also points to policy measures intended to support existing reactors in deregulated electricity markets.
New Construction Already Underway
The projected expansion comes as new nuclear construction continues worldwide.
At the end of 2025, 413 nuclear power reactors were operating globally, with total capacity of 377.1 GW(e). The IAEA’s wider assessment also identifies reactors under construction and planned projects as part of the project-by-project analysis used to develop its capacity scenarios.
In 2025, seven reactors totaling 2.8 GW(e) were retired, while three reactors totaling 3.0 GW(e) were connected to the grid. Construction began on 12 reactors with a combined expected capacity of 14.3 GW(e).
The IAEA’s projections consider operating reactors, possible license renewals, planned shutdowns, power uprates and plausible construction projects. Experts assess these projects individually under low and high assumptions.
Electricity Demand Provides the Broader Context
The nuclear expansion is taking place against a much larger projected increase in global electricity demand.
The IAEA projects final energy consumption will increase by about 20% between 2025 and 2060, while electricity consumption is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.2% and more than double over the period.
Electricity’s share of final energy consumption is projected to rise from 20.6% in 2025 to 37.2% in 2060.
Total electricity production is projected to rise by about 80% by 2040 and to 2.5 times its 2025 level by 2060.
In the high nuclear case, nuclear electricity production would nearly quadruple by 2060, reaching 10,372 TWh. Nuclear’s share of global electricity production would rise from 8.4% in 2025 to 13.2% in 2060.
Under the low case, nuclear generation would more than double to 5,674 TWh, but its share would decline to 7.2%.
Nuclear Generation Grew in 2025
Nuclear electricity generation increased in 2025, although it grew more slowly than total global electricity production.
Nuclear generation reached 2,689.1 TWh, while global electricity production totaled about 32,055 TWh. Nuclear accounted for 8.4% of global electricity production.
Global electricity generation increased by 2.7% in 2025, while nuclear generation increased by about 1.1%. The resulting difference in growth rates reduced nuclear’s share from 8.7% in 2024 to 8.4% in 2025.
Energy Security and Financing Support Nuclear Expansion
The IAEA says its upward revision reflects growing recognition of nuclear power’s potential contribution to energy security and long-term economic growth.
The agency also points to renewed engagement with nuclear power by international financial institutions, including the World Bank Group and the Asian Development Bank.
The IAEA said: “The upward revision of the projections reflects growing recognition of the role that nuclear power can play in supporting energy security and long-term economic growth. There has been renewed engagement with nuclear power by international financial institutions, such as the World Bank Group and the Asian Development Bank, signaling a broader shift that other international financial institutions have begun to follow.
“Energy security and affordability concerns intensified following successive energy crises since 2022. Disruptions to oil and gas flows have major implications for both energy security and global energy markets. In response, interest in diversified electricity generation has grown, including interest in nuclear power.”
The agency says financing, national policies, construction capacity and other enabling factors will be important to achieving or exceeding the high case.
IAEA Outlook Hinges on Policy, Investment and Reactor Lifetimes
The IAEA cautions that the figures should not be interpreted as a prediction of where global nuclear power will necessarily stand in 2060.
The low and high estimates are designed to provide a plausible range of nuclear capacity development. The low case assumes current market, technology and resource trends continue, with few additional changes in laws, policies and regulations affecting nuclear power.
The high case incorporates national intentions to expand nuclear power as well as energy-security and climate-policy considerations. It remains plausible and technically feasible, but the IAEA says various factors related to national policy, construction and financing would be needed to reach or exceed it.
The agency also notes that its energy and electricity projections do not represent net-zero pathways and do not align with scenarios designed to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
The long-term nuclear outlook therefore rests on a combination of factors: construction of new large reactors, wider deployment of SMRs, continued operation of existing plants, successful lifetime extensions, financing and government policy.
If the IAEA’s high case is realized, nuclear capacity would more than triple from 2025 levels by 2060. The projected expansion would place nuclear power in a substantially larger role in a global electricity system that is itself expected to grow rapidly over the same period.