A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has come into effect after weeks of escalating conflict, offering a narrow window for diplomacy while exposing deep divisions between the two sides.
Brokered largely through Pakistani mediation, the agreement centers on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and halting immediate hostilities and signals a pause in a conflict that has intensified over the past six weeks and threatened to destabilize the wider Middle East.
However, key questions remain over the deal’s scope, enforcement, and durability.
Ceasefire terms and triggers
The deal follows a dramatic escalation in rhetoric from Donald Trump, who warned that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Hours later, he announced that Washington would “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” contingent on Tehran allowing maritime traffic through the critical waterway.
The strait, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, has been a central flashpoint in the conflict. Under the agreement, Iran will permit vessels to transit the passage, with movements coordinated by its military.
Trump justified the pause by stating that the United States had “already met and exceeded all military objectives,” while signaling potential diplomatic engagement ahead, including discussions on tariffs and sanctions relief. At the same time, he warned that any country supplying weapons to Iran would face a 50% tariff on exports to the United States.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said American forces would remain on high alert, ready to resume operations “at a moment’s notice” if Iran fails to comply.
Iran’s Conditions
Tehran has framed the ceasefire as part of a broader political and military outcome. In a 10-point plan, Iran called for a complete cessation of hostilities not only within its borders but also across regional theaters including Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. It also demanded the lifting of sanctions, the release of frozen assets, and compensation for reconstruction.
Notably, Iran reiterated that it “fully commits to not seeking possession of any nuclear weapons,” a key point likely to shape upcoming negotiations.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council stated that “Iran’s victory in the field would also be consolidated in political negotiations,” underscoring the leadership’s effort to portray the ceasefire as a position of strength rather than concession.
Israel’s Position and Continued Tensions
Israel has expressed support for the temporary halt in fighting but emphasized that it does not extend to Lebanon, where clashes with the Iran-backed group Hezbollah continue.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel backed Trump’s decision “subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks,” while warning that military operations could resume at any time. “Our finger is on the trigger,” he said, highlighting the precarious nature of the truce.
Pakistan’s Crucial Mediation
The breakthrough has been widely attributed to behind-the-scenes diplomacy led by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose government acted as an intermediary between Washington and Tehran.
Pakistani officials described last-minute negotiations as “sombre and serious but still hopeful,” with a “very small circle” handling sensitive communications. Islamabad leveraged its longstanding ties with Iran and working relationship with the United States to shuttle messages between the two sides.
Sharif publicly urged Trump to extend his deadline and pressed Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, proposals that ultimately formed the basis of the agreement. He later confirmed that the ceasefire was effective immediately and invited both parties to Islamabad for further talks aimed at securing a permanent settlement.
Pakistan’s role was not without challenges. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar acknowledged that optimism had been shaken by renewed hostilities, while Army Chief Asim Munir issued rare criticism of Iranian actions, particularly attacks affecting Saudi Arabia.
Despite these tensions, Pakistan maintained its mediation efforts, with officials cautioning that the situation remains “fragile” and trust between the parties is minimal.
Sudden Shift in Washington’s Approach
The ceasefire marks a striking reversal in tone from Trump, who within the span of a day shifted from threats of annihilation to endorsing what he described as a “workable” plan for de-escalation.
Analysts suggest the pivot may reflect concerns over the long-term costs of a sustained military campaign. Securing the Strait of Hormuz, while feasible militarily, would likely require tens of thousands of troops and potentially years of commitment—raising the specter of another prolonged conflict.
The White House has framed the ceasefire as a product of military leverage enabling diplomacy, with press secretary Karoline Leavitt stating that US actions had created “an opening for a diplomatic solution and long-term peace.”
Lebanon – the unresolved front
The exclusion or contested inclusion of Lebanon is the most immediate stress point in the agreement.
Iranian and Pakistani interpretations suggest the ceasefire should extend across regional theatres. Israel rejects this outright and has continued strikes against Hezbollah targets. Tehran has responded with warnings of retaliation.
This ambiguity is more than semantic. It reflects competing visions of the conflict: a contained bilateral confrontation versus a multi-front regional struggle. Without alignment on this question, the ceasefire’s durability is in doubt.
Where are Peace Talks taking place?
Pakistan has invited both sides to Islamabad on Friday, April 10, for further negotiations aimed at reaching a longer-term agreement.
The U.S. delegation will be led by Vice President JD Vance, alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. They will meet Iranian counterparts to attempt to bridge the vast gap between Tehran’s demand for reconstruction compensation and Washington’s requirement for a permanent end to Iranian regional militancy.
Security in the Pakistani capital has been tightened as the talks approach, reflecting both their importance and the risks involved.
What happens next?
Despite the breakthrough, the ceasefire remains precarious. Reports of continued attacks, including drone strikes targeting infrastructure in the region, highlight the difficulty of enforcing the agreement.
The United States and Iran also appear to have differing interpretations of the ceasefire’s terms, particularly regarding regional conflicts and long-term concessions.
International leaders have welcomed the pause and urged all sides to implement it fully, but analysts warn that without rapid progress in negotiations, the two-week window may simply delay a return to conflict rather than prevent it.